Our timing model has outperformed the S&P 500 by a significant margin. The hypothetical annualized rate of return for our timing model is approximately 25% higher than that of the S&P500 alone (9.5% versus 7.5%).
Long-term market-timing signals are generated when the cumulative signals of the underlying timing models hit a certain threshold. For specific reasons, we don’t require all underlying models to indicate “sell” to trigger a sell signal, but rather only a certain majority. The same goes for “buy” signals.
We use a multitude of different timing models since markets respond differently over time to certain drivers and data sets. We look at all of them to evaluate timing signals.
More information can be found on the Report page.
Our models are robust; we are aware of the dangers of curve fitting in system design and therefore build each model to be robust instead of attaining maximum performance. We want to ensure consistent performance for decades to come.
There is no performance guarantee. We cannot promise a rate of return simply because the future is unknown. We can, however, promise the following:
1. We are passionate about performance. As a client you are accessing the very best of what we are capable of offering.
2. Aligned interests. We don’t manage money: we are a subscription service. Our clients have the ability to part ways with us at any time. This arrangement forces us to stay engaged and to fight for our clients at all times. We also put our money where our mouth is: we deploy our personal assets in line with Mack’s timing model.
3. Back-tested. Thousands of hours have been invested in the research and development associated with Mack Research. The timing model has been rigorously back-tested into the middle of the last century.
Sentiment analysis is close to our heart. We find it fascinating and highly rewarding. Our sentiment indicators are composites of multiple underlying measures that create a robust, versatile, and completely proprietary barometer of investor attitude.
Developing this resource requires looking at sentiment in a broader sense and through multiple lenses.
We track retail investor sentiment as well as the mood of professional investors. In addition, we monitor market action; how a market moves can reveal valuable information since it measures actual transactions, rather than opinion.
We use both but rely predominantly on fundamental and economic data. Our models also depend on sentiment, cross-asset relationships, and government/central bank policies. Moreover, one should note that “fundamental” and “technical” are very broad terms which can encompass many types of underlying data, much of which may not be obvious to investors. We don’t utilize common data sets, such as P/E ratios, or common technical analysis, such as trend lines or moving averages. The wide popularity of such data and analysis methods render them rather useless.
Our primary long-term market-timing model focuses on U.S. equities. However, we provide sentiment-based timing models for gold, treasuries, crude oil, and the Euro currency.
Due to the high correlation among global equity markets, particularly those in developed countries, foreign clients should find substantial value in Mack Research. Whether you invest in the DAX, FTSE, ASE or KOSPI 200, our service will be of value.
We believe it is vital for our client’s interest to align with ours. We believe that we should “eat our own cooking,” and we do. We invest our personal portfolios as well as Mack’s retained earnings in accordance with the market-timing models provided to clients. We don’t win, unless our clients do, as well.
Clients are free to cancel their subscriptions at any time and for any reason. Upon cancellation, they will be refunded the prorated amount of their remaining subscription. We require 30 days’ notice by email.
Theoretically, yes, but in reality that is not possible. The number of clients and the level of assets run in accordance to our timing models would need to be large enough to impact the broad stock market. Realistically, that would never be an issue. Our long-term market-timing model would have had an investor in the market about 85% of the time since 1970, so few transactions would have occurred, lessening any theoretical impact on the strategy. Our sentiment model, which indicates probable short- and medium-term oscillations, is recommended for partial transactions (adding new capital or redeeming for necessary life events). So, those activities shouldn’t impact markets enough, even with a massive client base.
The stock market’s deep liquidity makes our impact, even with an exceedingly large client base, quite minimal.